Addis Ababa/Hargeisa (Hornpos) — Growing tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea have sparked concerns that a new conflict could erupt in the Horn of Africa, following Ethiopia’s renewed insistence on gaining access to the Red Sea.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has repeatedly stated that Ethiopia’s need for sea access is a strategic priority, initially suggesting the issue could be resolved through negotiations within two years. However, recent remarks by top Ethiopian military officials have fuelled fears that Addis Ababa might pursue the matter by force.
Ethiopia’s army chief, Field Marshal Berhanu Jula, recently declared that Ethiopia “cannot remain landlocked,” a comment many interpreted as signaling the possibility of military confrontation. Ethiopia lost its coastline when Eritrea gained independence, leaving the country without access to the sea for over three decades. The port of Assab — once part of Ethiopia — lies just 60 km from their shared border.
The two countries fought a devastating border war between 1998 and 2000, which claimed more than 100,000 lives. Relations eventually improved after Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki signed a peace agreement in 2018.
Escalating Rhetoric:
Earlier this year, Prime Minister Abiy described the loss of Assab as “a mistake that can be corrected in the future.” Ethiopia’s ambassador to Kenya, Gen. Bacha Debele, went further, calling the port “Ethiopia’s inheritance,” adding that it would be “regained by force if necessary.”
The Ethiopian military chief has also warned senior officers that Ethiopia could target countries preventing its access to the sea — a remark widely understood as aimed at Eritrea.
Eritrea has strongly rejected Ethiopia’s position. Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel dismissed Addis Ababa’s request for Red Sea access as “dangerous” and a “poisonous plan,” warning that Ethiopia’s statements amount to a “clear act of aggression.” He described the issue as a red line that cannot be crossed.
Military Activity and Media Campaigns:
There are currently no confirmed reports of active military mobilization along the border. However, Ethiopia’s state broadcaster ETV frequently airs footage of newly trained recruits and displays recently acquired military hardware, including tanks and armored vehicles.
Eritrea, for its part, has not signaled any military response, though the country continues to conduct its long-standing national service program, training thousands of young men and women.
Ethiopia’s state media has intensified its coverage, airing narratives that the country “unjustly lost its coastline” and must reclaim it. Demonstrators have been shown carrying slogans such as “From the dam to the sea” and “Sea access is Ethiopia’s right.”
Eritrean state media has accused Ethiopia of reviving old territorial disputes resolved decades ago, warning that Addis Ababa is attempting to provoke a new war.
Internal Conflicts Complicate the Picture:
Analysts warn that Ethiopia’s internal instability could increase the likelihood of regional conflict. Fighting continues in parts of Amhara and Oromia, and tensions remain high in Tigray where the Pretoria peace agreement has not been fully implemented.
This month, the Tigray regional administration accused the federal government of carrying out a drone strike near the Afar border, killing both fighters and civilians. Meanwhile, authorities in Afar accused Tigrayan forces of crossing into their region—claims Tigray officials denied.
Should conflict reignite between TPLF and the Ethiopian government, the probability of Ethiopia and Eritrea clashing again would rise significantly.
Addis Ababa has repeatedly accused Asmara of supporting armed groups opposed to the federal government.
Prepared:
Hornpost staff Reporter
