Hornpost
October 2025.
Mogadishu (Hornpost) Somalia is once again facing a deepening political rift, this time between President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s federal administration and the regional states of Jubaland and Puntland. The disagreement reflects long-standing tensions over power-sharing, constitutional reforms, and the structure of upcoming national elections.
Core Issues Behind the Dispute:
At the heart of the current standoff lies a difference of opinion on the constitutional amendments being pursued by the federal government. President Hassan Sheikh’s administration seeks to finalize a permanent constitution that consolidates federal powers and sets a clear framework for future elections.
However, leaders of Puntland and Jubaland argue that the process is centralized, non-consultative, and undermines the autonomy guaranteed to the federal member states.
They have boycotted several meetings led by Villa Somalia, insisting that any constitutional review must be based on consensus and equal participation.
The other major point of contention is the model for upcoming elections. While the federal government promotes a “one person, one vote” system, regional states fear that the necessary legal and security conditions are not yet in place to ensure a credible and inclusive vote.
Economic and Security Strains:
Adding to the political crisis is a growing economic strain. The Somali government is struggling with reduced external funding and budgetary shortfalls, particularly following delays in international aid disbursements and declining domestic revenue.
Moreover, the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) — responsible for supporting national security — faces financial challenges, with reports indicating late salary payments and reduced logistical support. This situation threatens to weaken joint operations against al-Shabaab at a time when the federal government had vowed to intensify the final phase of its military campaign.
Potential Implications:
The continued standoff risks derailing Somalia’s state-building agenda, including constitutional completion, security transition, and economic reforms. It also deepens mistrust between Mogadishu and the regional administrations, potentially reviving old political rivalries and fragmentation.
Observers warn that unless inclusive dialogue is restored, Somalia could face delays in elections, weakened governance, and a security vacuum that extremist groups might exploit.
Summary:
The political friction between President Hassan Sheikh’s administration and the states of Jubaland and Puntland underscores Somalia’s fragile federal system. With constitutional reform, election management, and economic constraints all intertwined, the country faces a pivotal moment that will test its ability to balance central authority with regional autonomy.
Hornpost staff Reporter
Hargeisa, Somaliland
